Grain Union raises forecast for Russia’s grain harvest in 2019

MOSCOW, Oct 14 (PRIME) -- The Russian Grain Union has raised its 2019 grain harvest forecast to 123.5 million tonnes from 121.7 million tonnes, but exports of wheat may fall in the 2019–2020 agricultural year, the union’s President Arkady Zlochevsky said in a news conference on Monday.

“Our forecast for the gross harvest used to be heavily reduced due to a bad weather, its lower threshold was 121.7 million tonnes. We’ve raised it to 123.5 million tonnes now,” he said, adding that it was done as the wheat yield grew to 28.3 metric centners per hectare as of the end of the sowing season from 27.9 centners as of the same date of 2018.

The gross wheat harvest may stand at 77 million tonnes this year, with the barley harvest reaching 21.5 million tonnes and the corn harvest 13.5 million tonnes. Exports in the current agricultural year that started on July 1 and will end on June 30, 2020 may amount to 46–47 million tonnes due to exports of barley and corn, but wheat exports may fall to 34 million tonnes this year from 35.2 million tonnes exported in the previous season, Zlovchevsky said.

This situation is connected to carry-over stocks of grain, as Russia has significantly raised the stock to 19–20 million tonnes of wheat against the Food and Agriculture Organization’s recommendation of 12–13 million tonnes. Its production costs also rose to almost 8,000 rubles per tonne from 4,000–6,000 rubles due to a 50% hike in prices for fuel, forcing Russian farmers to hold back the grain, he said.

For instance, the cost of 1 tonne of fourth-class wheat in the port of Novorossiysk stands at about 10,300 rubles, while producers need the price of 11,500–12,000 rubles. But the abundance of grain and wheat on the international markets does not make the price rise imminent, he said.

(64.2237 rubles – U.S. $1)

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